DCAs also increase ex-post confidence. For example, in 2002, Iran`s defence minister described his country`s DCA with Kuwait as an “effort of confidence,” repeating a recurring phrase in the statements of the heads of state and government and in the texts of the DCAs themselves. Footnote 44 The Prime Ministers of China and India highlighted this logic in a joint public statement on their 2005 DCA, stressing that “the expansion and deepening of defence exchanges between the two countries is essential to strengthen mutual trust and mutual understanding between the two armed forces.” Footnote 45 DCAs creates trust by repeatedly associating governments with concrete acts of cooperation that do not involve trivial risks. Footnote 46 While cooperation issues are mainly related to ex ante trust, I will show later that increased ex post confidence reinforces the network effects of DCAs. I also include a number of additional variables that need to be controlled on exogenous influences, each of which, like the network terms, must symmetrically capture the estimating equations. To manage modernization requirements, I include average power, average CINC log-transformed scores of i and j; per beep/capita, the average log-transformed GDP of i and j; and arms coincide, a dummy variable that corresponds to 1 if i or j is an arms exporter, while the other is an importer. To control common security threats, I include reciprocal enemies, a number of i and jDs against ordinary third parties in the last five years; and the mutual terrorist threat, the means of the annual deadly terrorist attacks perpetrated by foreigners in i and j. To control the influence of political orientation, I include mutual democracy, a dummy variable that corresponds to 1 if i and I are the two democracies; unga ideal point diff, which makes the difference in the political positions between i and J in the UN General Assembly; bilateral trade, volume of processed bilateral trade flows. Finally, to control alliances, I include model variables for NATO membership, non-NATO defence pacts and joint NATO-PfP couplings. The pooled logit model also includes a geographical distance and a decoy for past colonial links, both of which are eliminated from the UEV models.
The schedule contains sources for each of these measures and takes into account replacement operations.